Improvement and application of synergetic forecast model for landslides

Since it has insufficient demonstration of theoretical basis of taking the first displacement data as the known condition, the original synergetic model is improved. Based on the improved model, a formula for displacement prediction and landslide time is deduced. In addition, the analysis results indicate that taking the maximum velocity as the forecast criterion of landslide time in the original synergetic model lacks rationality, and taking the maximum acceleration as the forecast criterion is more in accordance with the mechanism of landslides. Then the formula for the forecast value of landslide time based on the maximum acceleration criterion of synergetic model is deduced. Based on the deduced formulas mentioned above, the original and improved synergetic models and the two kinds of criteria are applied to the time forecast of some examples of actual landslides by using MATLAB software. The prediction and forecast results indicate that: (1) the forecast time of the improved synergetic model is closer to the actual occurrence time of landslides, and earlier than that of the original model. The precision of displacement prediction of the improved model is higher than that of the original model; (2) as for the forecast results of two kinds of criteria, the forecast time of the maximum acceleration criterion is earlier than that of the maximum velocity criterion, and its forecast error is smaller than that of the maximum velocity criterion; and (3) the forecast time of the improved model based on the maximum acceleration criterion is very closer and a little earlier than the actual occurrence time of landslides, and it can play a role in early warning. So, the improved model is better than the original one, and the maximum acceleration criterion is better than the maximum velocity one. The application of the improved model based on the maximum