Probit model for exceedance of liquefaction-induced lateral deformation over a given threshold value due to earthquakes

The major factors influencing the liquefaction-induced lateral deformation are identified using statistical analysis based on post-earthquake reconnaissance data collected from historical earthquakes. A simple probability model is proposed within the framework of the Probit model for predicting the likelihood of liquefaction-induced deformation exceeding a given threshold value. The model prediction is compared with the historical data collected from two selected destructive earthquakes. The proposed model relates the probability to the earthquake moment, epicenter distance, slope of the ground surface and accumulated thickness of liquefiable soils. The comparison between the prediction and the field data indicates that the proposed model performs well particularly in cases of large displacements, while it provides a conservative estimate in cases of small displacements.