Prediction method for long-term settlements of high-speed railway subgrade under influences of nearby loads

The long-term settlement of high-speed railway subgrade usually occurs under the influences of the nearby loads, and it will result in unsafety of the high-speed running trains. A practical computation method for creep is proposed by Yao et al, and it can predict the future deformation according to the limited settlement data. Taking the simulating data from the ABAQUS software which can simulate the increasing subgrade settlement with time as examples, the feasibility of using the practical method for creep to predict the long-term deformation of high-speed railway subgrade is demonstrated, and the relavant method to calculate the effective range of the prediction under certain errors is also given. It is shown that by using the practical method for creep, we can accurately predict the deformation based on the existing data, and also can get the early warning deformation of the railway for the future. It is of great significance to the safe operation management of high-speed railways.