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张东明, 陈江, 何洪甫, 张兴华. 动态修正时距权重的不等时距灰色模型及应用[J]. 岩土工程学报, 2012, 34(6): 1137-1141.
引用本文: 张东明, 陈江, 何洪甫, 张兴华. 动态修正时距权重的不等时距灰色模型及应用[J]. 岩土工程学报, 2012, 34(6): 1137-1141.
ZHANG Dong-ming, CHEN Jiang, HE Hong-fu, ZHANG Xing-hua. Unequal interval grey model based on dynamic correction of time-distance weight[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2012, 34(6): 1137-1141.
Citation: ZHANG Dong-ming, CHEN Jiang, HE Hong-fu, ZHANG Xing-hua. Unequal interval grey model based on dynamic correction of time-distance weight[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2012, 34(6): 1137-1141.

动态修正时距权重的不等时距灰色模型及应用

Unequal interval grey model based on dynamic correction of time-distance weight

  • 摘要: 传统不等时距 GM(1,1) 模型预测结果往往会出现预测值的残差较大而且残差率的变化也大,还需再建立残差模型加以修正。针对传统不等时距 GM(1,1) 模型的不足,重新分配在数据累加和累减过程中时距的权重,通过研究与验算确定最佳的时距权重,建立了修正时距权重不等时距边坡位移的灰色预测模型,并在数据累减还原过程中依据残差率的变化趋势动态修正时距权重,使其预测结果与监测结果更为接近。该预测模型充分考虑了预测系统的时变性和灰色性,降低了预测系统的整体预测误差,提高了预测精度。实例分析表明:该预测模型拟合精度较高,预测结果正确可靠,能够反映边坡位移的发展趋势,对边坡位移的短、中期变化有较为理想的预测效果,具有一定的理论价值和工程实践意义。

     

    Abstract: The predicted results of the traditional unequal interval GM (1,1) model always have greater residuals, and a large variety of residual rates, which needs to establish a residual error model to amend them. In view of this situation, a grey prediction model for slope displacement based on the correction of time-distance weight is established by redistributing the time-distance weight in the process of data accumulation or regression, and by determining the optimal time-distance weights after research and checking. During the data regression and reduction, time-distance weights are corrected dynamically based on the trends in the residual rate. The values of dynamic correction make predictions more close to the monitoring results. In the model, both time-varying and gray property are adequately considered to reduce the whole prediction error and improve the prediction accuracy. The case study shows that the fitting precision is high and the prediction is reliable. The proposed model, which is of a certain theoretical and practical significance, can be employed to predict effectively the tendency and results of slope displacement in the short term and middle term.

     

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