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何晓燕, 孙丹丹, 黄金池. 大坝溃决社会及环境影响评价[J]. 岩土工程学报, 2008, 30(11): 1752-1757.
引用本文: 何晓燕, 孙丹丹, 黄金池. 大坝溃决社会及环境影响评价[J]. 岩土工程学报, 2008, 30(11): 1752-1757.
HE Xiaoyan, SUN D, an. Assessment on social and environmental impacts of dam break[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2008, 30(11): 1752-1757.
Citation: HE Xiaoyan, SUN D, an. Assessment on social and environmental impacts of dam break[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2008, 30(11): 1752-1757.

大坝溃决社会及环境影响评价

Assessment on social and environmental impacts of dam break

  • 摘要: 水库溃坝风险的大小不仅取决于溃坝事故发生的可能性,也取决于溃坝事故导致的后果。在溃坝事故发生可能性一定时,后果越严重则溃坝风险就越大。溃坝后果主要包括4个方面:溃坝导致的生命损失、经济损失、社会影响和环境影响。与溃坝导致生命损失、经济损失估算的研究成果相比,目前对于溃坝社会及环境影响的研究则明显不足。针对水库溃坝行为特点,分析了水库溃坝的主要社会及环境影响,在系统收集水库溃坝后果资料的基础上,建立了水库溃坝社会影响及环境影响评价指标体系、量化方法,根据溃坝社会及环境影响因素的特点,结合采用层次分析法和模糊数学方法实现对溃坝社会及环境影响程度的有效评定。

     

    Abstract: Risk of dam break not only depends on the probability of dam failure events,but also on consequences.When the dam break probability is known,the more serious the dam break consequence,the higher the dam break risk.The consequence is the direct impact of the dam break,including health effect(e.g.,death,injury),property loss,environmental impact,and social impact.Up to now,there are many researches in the field of life loss and economic loss induced by the dam break,but the researches on social and environmental impacts are relatively less.The index system is presented for the evaluation of the social and environmental effect of dam break,based on the analysis of the influence of the dam break on the society and environment.Multi-target methods and stage division are also proposed.The analytic hierarchy process is used to elicit the weight of each target.The fuzzy mathematics method is used to assess the degree of dam break impacts on the society and environment with the principle of maximum degree of membership.

     

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