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基于灰色马尔可夫模型的区域地下水位动态预报

祝彦知, 程楠

祝彦知, 程楠. 基于灰色马尔可夫模型的区域地下水位动态预报[J]. 岩土工程学报, 2011, 33(zk1): 71-75.
引用本文: 祝彦知, 程楠. 基于灰色马尔可夫模型的区域地下水位动态预报[J]. 岩土工程学报, 2011, 33(zk1): 71-75.
ZHU Yan-zhi, CHEN Nan. Dynamic forecast of regional groundwater level based on grey Markov chain model[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2011, 33(zk1): 71-75.
Citation: ZHU Yan-zhi, CHEN Nan. Dynamic forecast of regional groundwater level based on grey Markov chain model[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2011, 33(zk1): 71-75.

基于灰色马尔可夫模型的区域地下水位动态预报  English Version

基金项目: 河南省基础与前沿技术研究计划项目(092300410170)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    祝彦知 (1965 – ) ,男,河南虞城人,博士后,教授,主要从事软黏土力学、桩基工程及地下结构等方面的教学与研究工作。

  • 中图分类号: TV211.12

Dynamic forecast of regional groundwater level based on grey Markov chain model

  • 摘要: 区域地下水位的变化受 多种因素的影响,并且呈现高度的非线性特点。针对区域地下水位变化的随机波动性、高度非线性特征,把区域地下水位的变化变化过程视为随机变化过程,将灰色系统理论与离散状态的马尔可夫链相结合,并在状态划分过程中,采用均值–标准差分级法进行指标分级与状态划分,提出了区域地下水位变化过程预报的灰色马尔可夫动态预报模型。在实例分析中,把某灌区 14 a 的地下水位的变化资料划分成 5 种状态。预测分析结果表明,利用灰色马尔可夫动态预报模型进行区域地下水位的变化动态预报是可行的。
    Abstract: The regional groundwater level is affected by several factors and highly nonlinear. Aiming at unstable change and highly nonlinear characteristics of the regional groundwater level, the grey Markov chain model is presented by means of combining the grey system theory with the dispersed Markov chain theory. The mean and standard deviations of information series are taken as the classification standard of precipitation states. The variance of the regional groundwater level for the past 14 years in the irrigating areas is classified into five classes according to the precipitation data. The predication results show that the model is feasible.
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2011-04-12
  • 发布日期:  2011-11-30

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