水库报废的影响分析:宏观过程与效应
Impact analysis of reservoir retirement:macro-processes and final effects
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摘要: 对无修复价值的水库进行降等运行或报废处理是解决水库病险问题的一个较优选择,但目前对水库报废的影响研究较为缺乏。首先比较了中美两国拆坝动机的不同,指出环境生态原因并非我国水库报废的主要动机,且非报废论证的主要内容,这将直接导致对水库报废产生的环境生态影响关注不足,并可能因此导致善后处理措施不得力;然后对水库报废可能产生的影响进行分析,认为所有不利影响的初始原因均可归因于报废对河流水沙过程的影响,而最终效应均可归结于社会和经济影响,同时,水库报废的可能影响具有区域性,上游、库区和下游所受影响有明显差异;最后,给出了水库报废最终效应的评估框架,其评估结果表现为经济效应与不可消除的社会效应。Abstract: Retirement is a rational option for the reservoir dams with little rehabilitation values,but so far little attention has been paid to the impact analysis of reservoir retirement in China.A comparison between the reasons of reservoir retirement in China and those in US is conducted first of all,showing that the environmental-ecological consideration is not one of the most important reasons and neither one of the primary contents in retirement evaluation in China.It would probably result in very few measures to deal with the impacts,especially the environmental-ecological impacts induced by reservoir retirement.And then all the impacts are analyzed,including the developing processes of impacts and the corresponding final effects.The results show that all the other impacts are induced by runoff-sediment impacts and result in socio-economic impacts,and that all the impacts are site-specific,namely,the reservoir retirement has different impacts on the upstream,impoundment and downstream of the removed reservoir dams.Based on the above,a framework for impact evaluation is also presented,with the final evaluation results including economic effects and some social effects that could not be eliminated through economic measures.