Abstract: Taking the degree of expression for consolidation of ground with vertical drain as the function of probability analysis,the point-estimate method(PEM) was developed to compute the statistical moments of degree of consolidation,such as the mean and standard variance,and the probability ground degree of consolidation of wits vertical drain was calculated from these statistical moments.Compared with the traditional probability analysis methods,such as the first order second moment method,the PEM was simple and was not necessary to introduce control index to establish the limited-state-equation,and the computational process was convenient.When there were many estimated points(for instance,five points),in a case study,it was indicated that the PEM was as precise as Monte Carlo method,so it was a simple,convenient and precision-insured method,and it could be used in practice.