边坡滑动预测的有限元分析

Analysis of finite element method for early warning of landslide

摘要: 滑坡发生时间的有效预测,将有助于减少滑坡灾害所造成的损失,因此,如何有效预测滑坡的发生时间是坡地地质灾害防灾减灾工作中极为重要的一环。通过非饱和土坡的算例,并结合试验槽试验的试验结果,探讨将边坡稳定分析应用于滑坡发生的时机预测可能面临的问题。结果表明:稳定分析所预测的边坡破坏时间与非饱和土的参数、初始基质吸力场的分布和非饱和土的强度准则关系密切。因此,仍需进一步研究和讨论,以期能更合理的应用稳定分析方法的结果,并作为边坡灾害预警的理论依据。

Abstract: Effective landslide forecast can improve the early warning system of landslides and mitigate the landslide disasters.The phenomena of landslides in flume experiments and the stability of unsaturated soil slopes were analyzed.The evident difference of failure time between experimental slopes and numerical analysis was shown.Consequently,it was hard to use the landslide forecast of numerical analysis owing to the uncertainty of unsaturated soil parameters and matric suction distribution.Moreover,the reasonable shear strength criteria of unsaturated soil also had effect on the inaccuracy of forecast.These results could be used to provide the deliberate aspect to develop the theoretical basis of landslide disaster prevention.