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邓志平, 邹艺, 潘敏, 蒋水华, 郑克红. 水位降落下考虑多参数空间变异性的非饱和库岸边坡时变可靠度分析[J]. 岩土工程学报. DOI: 10.11779/CJGE20230884
引用本文: 邓志平, 邹艺, 潘敏, 蒋水华, 郑克红. 水位降落下考虑多参数空间变异性的非饱和库岸边坡时变可靠度分析[J]. 岩土工程学报. DOI: 10.11779/CJGE20230884
Time-varying reliability analysis of unsaturated reservoir bank slope under water level drop considering multi-parameter spatial variability[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering. DOI: 10.11779/CJGE20230884
Citation: Time-varying reliability analysis of unsaturated reservoir bank slope under water level drop considering multi-parameter spatial variability[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering. DOI: 10.11779/CJGE20230884

水位降落下考虑多参数空间变异性的非饱和库岸边坡时变可靠度分析

Time-varying reliability analysis of unsaturated reservoir bank slope under water level drop considering multi-parameter spatial variability

  • 摘要: 库水降落及土体参数空间变异性是影响边坡稳定性的重要因素,对这两种因素作用下库岸边坡进行可靠度评价具有重要意义。但现有可靠度分析大多仅考虑单一抗剪强度参数或水力参数的空间变异性,且仅分析某一时刻的静态可靠度,忽略了多参数空间变异性及时变因素的影响。为此,提出了同时考虑这两种因素的库岸边坡时变可靠度分析方法。采用Karhunen-Loève展开方法对土体参数随机场进行离散,利用分片逆回归(SIR)方法对随机变量进行降维预处理,基于降维后的变量构建高斯过程回归(GPR)代理模型,进而采用蒙特卡洛模拟(MCS)方法评估边坡失效概率。最后,以某一非饱和库岸边坡为例验证了所提方法的有效性,探讨了边坡在不同水位降落工况下的可靠度变化规律,并对关键土体参数进行了敏感性分析。结果表明:所提方法能准确、高效地描绘边坡失效概率(Pf)的时变规律,为考虑多参数空间变异性的非饱和边坡时变可靠度问题提供了一条有效的途径;库水降落越快时边坡安全系数(FS)下降和失效概率上升的速率越快;多个土体参数的空间变异性和相关性均对边坡可靠度计算结果有影响。

     

    Abstract: The reservoir water level drop and the spatial variability of soil parameters are important factors affecting slope stability, and it is important to evaluate the reliability of reservoir slopes under the action of these two factors. However, most of the existing reliability analyses only consider the spatial variability of a single shear strength parameter or hydraulic parameter, and only analyze the static reliability at a certain moment, ignoring the influence of multi-parameter spatial variability and time-varying factors. For this reason, a time-varying reliability analysis method for reservoir slopes that considers both factors is proposed. The Karhunen-Loève expansion method is used to discretize the random field of soil parameters, and the Slice Inverse Regression (SIR) method is used to reduce the dimension of random variables. Based on the reduced variables, the Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) surrogate model is constructed, and then the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method is used to evaluate the slope failure probability. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method was verified by taking an unsaturated reservoir bank slope as an example, and the reliability variation law of the slope under different water level plunge conditions was explored, and sensitivity analysis of key soil parameters was conducted. The proposed method can accurately and efficiently describe the time-varying law of slope failure probability (Pf), which provides an effective way for the time-varying reliability problem of unsaturated slope considering multi-parameter spatial variability. The faster the reservoir water plummets, the faster the slope safety factor (FS) decreases and the failure probability increases. The spatial variability and correlation of multiple soil parameters have an impact on the calculation results of slope reliability.

     

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