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魏博文, 占良红, 李火坤, 徐镇凯. 基于区间参数反演的重力坝非概率可靠性分析[J]. 岩土工程学报, 2020, 42(2): 325-333. DOI: 10.11779/CJGE202002014
引用本文: 魏博文, 占良红, 李火坤, 徐镇凯. 基于区间参数反演的重力坝非概率可靠性分析[J]. 岩土工程学报, 2020, 42(2): 325-333. DOI: 10.11779/CJGE202002014
WEI Bo-wen, ZHAN Liang-hong, LI Huo-kun, XU Zhen-kai. Non-probabilistic reliability analysis of gravity dams based on inversion of interval parameters[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2020, 42(2): 325-333. DOI: 10.11779/CJGE202002014
Citation: WEI Bo-wen, ZHAN Liang-hong, LI Huo-kun, XU Zhen-kai. Non-probabilistic reliability analysis of gravity dams based on inversion of interval parameters[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2020, 42(2): 325-333. DOI: 10.11779/CJGE202002014

基于区间参数反演的重力坝非概率可靠性分析

Non-probabilistic reliability analysis of gravity dams based on inversion of interval parameters

  • 摘要: 传统概率可靠性分析方法应用重力坝结构性能和服役性态评估过程中,其受不确定参数严格随机性、计算结果对参数过敏感性及其功能函数高度非线性等多因素制约。提出了基于区间参数的重力坝单元和体系非概率可靠性(Nonprobabilistic Reliability,NR)分析方法。首先,充分依据重力坝原型监测资料、数学模型和物理模型计算成果获取重力坝区间参数的界限,综合运用区间数学和NR等理论和方法,构建了基于区间参数的重力坝单元与体系NR计算模型,发展了一种基于响应面方法的重力坝NR指标(NR-η)计算方法。其次,从重力坝系统可能失效路径及失效模式入手,剖析单一和多重失效模式下重力坝体系的安全性。最后,通过某重力坝工程表明:方法能够有效地揭示重力坝局部和整体可靠状态,计算结果符合重力坝运行特点前提下与该大坝服役背景状况高度吻合。

     

    Abstract: In the evaluation of structural performance and service behavior of gravity dams, the traditional probabilistic reliability analysis method is restricted by many factors, such as strict randomness of uncertain parameters, oversensitivity of calculated results and high nonlinearity of function function. A non-probabilistic reliability (NR) analysis method for gravity dam elements and system based on the interval parameters is proposed. First, according to the prototype monitoring data and the achievements of physical and mathematical models for gravity dams, the interval parameter boundary of the gravity dam is obtained. A NR model based on the interval parameters is established, and a method for calculating NR index (NR-η) based on response surface method is developed by using the interval mathematics and NR theory. Then, the safety of the gravity dam system in single and multiple failure modes is analyzed from the possible failure paths and modes. Finally, based on a gravity dam, the results indicate that the proposed method can effectively reveal the local and overall reliable states of the gravity dam. The calculated results are in good agreement with the background conditions of the dam under the premise of the operating characteristics of the gravity dam.

     

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