基于变形控制标准的高土石坝地震可靠度分析

吕小龙; 迟世春

doi:10.11779/CJGE201903014

基于变形控制标准的高土石坝地震可靠度分析 English Version

吕小龙^{1, 2},
迟世春^1,2, ,

1. 大连理工大学海岸与近海工程国家重点实验室,辽宁大连 116024;
2. 大连理工大学工程抗震研究所,建设工程学部水利工程学院,辽宁大连 116024

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（51379029）; 国家重点研发计划项目（2016YFB0201001）

详细信息

作者简介:
吕小龙(1989- ),男,河南洛阳人,博士研究生,从事高土石坝抗震研究工作。E-mail: lvxiaolong@mail.dlut.edu.cn。

通讯作者:
迟世春，E-mail：schchi@dlut.edu.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-01-30
- 发布日期: 2019-03-24

Seismic reliability analysis of high earth-rockfill dams based on deformation control criteria

LÜ Xiao-long^{1, 2},
CHI Shi-chun^1,2, ,

1. State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China;
2. Institute of Earthquake Engineering, Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China

摘要

摘要: 基于可靠度分析的设计方法是科学定量地研究和保证岩土工程安全性的重要手段之一。通过定量考察土石坝工程中的不确定性因素,综合评估地震失效概率,可为高土石坝抗震设计和风险评估提供参考。以坝顶震陷率作为地震安全控制指标,提出了同时考虑地震和筑坝料参数不确定性的高土石坝地震可靠度分析方法。首先,采用地震烈度作为地震危险性的宏观衡量尺度,通过引入地震烈度概率模型,将基于概率烈度的地震动峰值作为地震强度因子,调整规范谱人工地震波的幅值进行动力有限元计算。然后,采用适用于处理小样本和非线性问题的高斯过程响应面法,建立筑坝料参数与坝顶震陷率之间的非线性映射关系,结合蒙特卡罗法计算高土石坝地震失效概率。最后,以紫坪铺面板堆石坝为例,应用该方法考察了设计基准期内的地震失效概率。
- 土石坝 /
- 地震可靠度 /
- 高斯过程响应面 /
- 紫坪铺面板堆石坝
Abstract: The reliability-based design (RBD) is one of the most crucial measures to study and guarantee geotechnical engineering safety. Through quantitative analysis of uncertainty in earth-rockfill dam engineering, the failure probability can be evaluated and may provide a reference basis for the seismic performance design and safety risk assessment. By selecting the crest seismic settlement ratio as the seismic safety index, the seismic reliability analysis of high earth-rockfill dams, which incorporates the uncertainty of earthquakes and dam material parameters, is proposed. First, based on the seismic intensity probability model, the seismic acceleration corresponding to the earthquake intensity occurrence probability is used as the earthquake intensity factor. The artificially generated seismic waves are adjusted for finite element calculations. Then, the Gaussian process regression (GPR) model, which is capable of solving the highly nonlinear regression problem with small samples, is used to establish the nonlinear mapping relation between material parameters and crest settlement ratio. The Monte-Carlo simulation method is employed to calculate seismic failure probability. For verification, the proposed method is employed to calculate the seismic failure probability of Zipingpu concrete face rockfill dam.
- earth-rockfill dam /
- seismic reliability /
- Gauss process response surface /
- Zipingpu CFRD

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