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储昭飞, 刘保国, 李旭, 张宁. 土坡稳定性的分位概率法和分项系数法对比[J]. 岩土工程学报, 2017, 39(1): 106-115. DOI: 10.11779/CJGE201701009
引用本文: 储昭飞, 刘保国, 李旭, 张宁. 土坡稳定性的分位概率法和分项系数法对比[J]. 岩土工程学报, 2017, 39(1): 106-115. DOI: 10.11779/CJGE201701009
CHU Zhao-fei, LIU Bao-guo, LI Xu, ZHANG Ning. Comparison between quantile value method and partial factor method for stability evaluation of soil slopes[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2017, 39(1): 106-115. DOI: 10.11779/CJGE201701009
Citation: CHU Zhao-fei, LIU Bao-guo, LI Xu, ZHANG Ning. Comparison between quantile value method and partial factor method for stability evaluation of soil slopes[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2017, 39(1): 106-115. DOI: 10.11779/CJGE201701009

土坡稳定性的分位概率法和分项系数法对比

Comparison between quantile value method and partial factor method for stability evaluation of soil slopes

  • 摘要: 对于土质边坡稳定性分析,由于岩土参数变异系数波动范围较大,分项系数设计法(PFM)计算结果不够稳定,尚未在工程中广泛推行。分位概率设计法(QVM)是一种新的可靠度设计方法,它以单一的分位概率η进行极限状态设计。将分位概率设计法应用于边坡稳定分析,针对土质边坡,进行了抗剪强度参数(c,f)的分项系数和分位概率的标定和误差分析。分析结果表明:①在土体抗剪强度参数(c,f)的均值、变异系数、坡角和坡高在取值范围内变化时,分位概率值(η)相比分项系数,其标定结果更加稳定;②相比分项系数设计法,分位概率设计法给定的极限状态,其实际可靠度βA更稳定,与目标可靠度βT之间的误差更小,设计更可靠;③分项系数法对各变量分别使用不同的分项系数,而分位概率法对所有变量采用相同的分位概率(η),设计更简洁。

     

    Abstract: Since the coefficients of variation of soil properties vary in a large range, the real reliability index for the soil slope designed using the partial factor method also fluctuates in a range. This drawback limits the application of PFM in stability evaluation for soil slopes. The quantile value method is a new method and adopts a single quantile value (η) as the design factor in slope reliability design. The quantile value method is introduced to analyze the reliability of soil slopes. In the analysis, both the quantile value (η) and the partial factors(c,f)are calibrated and validated. The results demonstrate that: (1) the quantile value (η) is more robust and stable comparing to the partial factors(c,f)when the fluctuations of the mean values and coefficients of variation of shear strength parameters of soil, the angle and height of slope are considered. (2) The quantile value method it is more conservative and safer than the partial factor method. (3) The quantile value method involves only one single value for all variables and is simpler than the partial factor method including many different partial factors for variables.

     

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